اثرات انواع سرریزهای تکنولوژی بر سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی در صنایع غذایی کشاورزی ایران

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرمان، کرمان، ایران
2 استاد تمام، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرمان، کرمان، ایران
چکیده
با توجه به اهمیت موضوع امنیت غذایی در برنامه‌ریزی کشورهای در حال توسعه از جمله ایران و همچنین نقش مهم بخش خصوصی در سرمایه‌گذاری مواد غذایی، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی تاثیر سرریزهای تکنولوژی بر سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی در صنایع غذایی کشاورزی ایران در یک بازه زمانی ۳۰ ساله پرداخته است. در این مطالعه با بهره­گیری از مدل رهیافت تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه پویا (DCGE ) و با استفاده از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی 1390، اثرات سرریزهای تکنولوژی شامل سه سناریوی دو برابر شدن سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، بهبود تحقیق و توسعه از طریق بهبود بهره‌وری تولید با لحاظ ضریب کسر فناوری 0062/0 و افزایش ۲۰ درصدی واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای و واسطه‌ای بر متغیر سرمایه‌گذاری نهادهای خصوصی در صنایع غذایی-کشاورزی شامل ۴ بخش زراعت و باغبانی، دام، شیلات و صنایع غذایی، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که سناریوی اول باعث افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری نهادهای خصوصی در هر چهار بخش فوق خواهد شد. سناریوی دوم نمی­تواند باعث افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری نهادهای خصوصی در چهار بخش مورد نظر شود و سناریوی سوم تاثیری بر افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری نهادهای خصوصی بر بخش‌های صنایع غذایی-کشاورزی به جز شیلات نخواهد داشت. بنابراین پیشنهاد می­شود که به­منظور توسعه صنایع غذایی-کشاورزی در ایران، سیاست­های لازم جهت جذب سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و محدودیت واردات کالاهای واسطه­ای بکار گرفته شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The effects of technology spillovers on private sector investment in Iran's food-agricultural industries

نویسندگان English

aliasghar baharloo 1
Seyed Abdulmajid Jalaee Esfandabadi 2
Mohsen Zayanderoodi 3
1 Ph.D. student, Department of Economics. Islamic Azad University. Kerman branch. Kerman. Iran.
2 Full professor. Department of Economics. Shahid Bahonar University. Kerman. Iran.
3 Associate Professor. Department of Economics. Islamic Azad University. Kerman Branch. Kerman. Iran
چکیده English

Considering the significance of food security in the planning of developing nations, such as Iran, and the crucial role played by the private sector in food investment, this study explores the influence of technology spillovers on private sector investment in Iran's agricultural food industry over a 30-year period. Using the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model and the 2010 social accounting matrix, the study evaluates the effects of technology spillovers in three scenarios: doubling foreign direct investment, enhancing research and development to improve production efficiency (with a technology deduction coefficient of 0.0062), and increasing capital and intermediary goods imports by 20%. The impact of these scenarios on private institutional investment in the agricultural food industry, encompassing agriculture and horticulture, livestock, fisheries, and food industries, is assessed. The results indicate that the first scenario leads to increased private sector investment in all four sectors mentioned. The second scenario does not increase private sector investment in these sectors, while the third scenario only affects investment in the fisheries sector, without impacting the other sectors of the agricultural food industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Economic growth of food-agricultural industries
Foreign direct investment
Research and Development
import of capital goods
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